Once again, the San Diego Padres' bats fell silent when they needed them most.
Last October, San Diego had the Los Angeles Dodgers on the ropes, leading 2–1 in the National League Division Series with a home game on deck. Then, L.A. shut the Friars out over the next 18 innings, won the series and cruised to a World Series title. In all, the Dodgers held San Diego scoreless for 24 consecutive innings.
A year later, the same problem reared its ugly head again.
The Padres were eliminated by the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, dropping their NL wild-card series 2–1 after three tight games. San Diego’s batters scored five total runs in the three-game set and looked helpless against every pitcher Chicago threw at them. Perhaps most crucially, the top three in the Padres lineup, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arráez, and Manny Machado, combined to go 4-for-33 (.121) in the series, and as a group went 0-for-11 with three strikeouts in both Game 1 Game 3.
It wasn’t a shocking outcome if you’ve followed San Diego’s offense this season. Manager Mike Shildt and his staff have focused the team on a contact-heavy, small-ball approach all year. The result was a shocking absence of power given some of the names in the lineup. As a team, the Padres slugged .390, which ranked 22nd in baseball, and they totaled only 152 home runs as a team, which ranked 28th. That philosophy has gotten them unceremoniously dumped in the postseason in back-to-back seasons.
Something has to change.
San Diego’s Approach Needs an Overhaul
The Padres don’t hit enough when it counts. They ranked 25th in OPS with runners in scoring position this season (.707), which continually bit them in big spots. In the three wild-card games against the Cubs, San Diego was 3-for-26 in those situations, including 0-for-8 in the decisive Game 3.
Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts struggled with injuries this season, and neither really got things going until late in the campaign. Bogaerts was the team's best hitter in the wild-card series and closed the season well. Merrill is too good to slash .264/.317/.457 with only 16 home runs next season. If he's healthy, San Diego can count on him to be better.
Expecting bounce-backs from those two and having trade deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano for all of 2026 should be a boost. But that won't be enough.
The impending departure of the high-contact, no-power Arráez will free up the Padres to add a first baseman with pop. Gavin Sheets far exceeded expectations this season with 19 home runs and a .746 OPS, and could take the job, but the team should aim higher. Sheets fits as a potential DH as well, and they could attempt to bring trade-deadline pick up Ryan O’Hearn back.
Tatis produced 6.1 fWAR this season, primarily as the team’s leadoff hitter. But his wRC+ (131) was down slightly from 2024 (135), and he slashed .268/.368/.446. His .814 OPS was fine, but below where a player of his caliber should be. He did have a career-high 89 walks and lowered his strikeout rate by a full 7%, but while his average exit velocity of 93.9 was in the 95th percentile, his launch angle dropped to 9.4, continuing a downward trend since he logged 13.8 in 2021. Tatis also swung at the first pitch in 42% of his at-bats—not exactly the approach of an ideal leadoff guy.
The 26-year-old isn’t the only one who needs to do some tweaking. Machado hit 27 home runs, drove in 97 runs, and slashed .275/.335/.460. His OPS was .795, down .002 points from 2024, but has significantly dropped from a high of .898 in 2022. Some of that is likely age-related, but he did produce 3.8 fWAR, his best total since 2022. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer can still get it done, but his chase, whiff and strikeout rates have continued to inch up over the past few years.
Frankly, the biggest issue isn't that Tatis and Machado haven't come through enough. The problem is that if they don't, the Padres are sunk. There simply isn't enough thump throughout the lineup to make up for it if one or both of them struggle.
That much was obvious over the past three games.
Padres Face a Big Offseason
Arráez, O’Hearn, and Jose Iglesias could all bolt the team this offseason, along with pitchers Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez and Michael King. As long as the incredible Ruben Niebla is in charge of the rotation and bullpen, there isn't much room for concern there, but the team’s offense needs more pieces to be successful.
San Diego’s pitching staff will remain among the best in baseball for the foreseeable future, but the lineup needs to be upgraded to match. I’m not sure how they’ll do it, but with Bogaerts and Machado aging and after A.J. Preller has traded piles of prospects over the past few years, the franchise needs to treat this like an urgent problem.
The Friars sold out in 72 of their 81 home games this season and finished second in attendance, trailing only the Dodgers, as 3,437,201 fans entered Petco Park. Despite a long history of losing, the team has reached the playoffs in four of the last six years. By current standards, this is a wildly successful franchise that needs to continue pushing forward.
San Diego isn’t far from having a championship-caliber roster. A few more pieces could get the team over that sizable hump. For now, the reason the Padres failed in 2024 and ’25 is clear: they simply don’t have the bats or approach to compete when it matters.
That needs to change if they hope to bring the city its first World Series title.